Are some economists correct about a real estate market correction beginning now? Well, I guess the best way to answer that question is with some levity. It didn’t take me long to google some some jokes about economists and to give you pause that I’m attacking economists, the sciences of psychology and economics were the studies for my double major at UCLA. That puts me in the category of the 9th joke below! 😂




Are Some Economists Correct About A Real Estate Market Correction





On the 9th of June there was an article in Fortune magazine by Lance Lambert (@NewsLambert) about the chief economist at Moody’s who believes that the real estate market is at the “…start of a full-blown housing correction…” Ok, maybe, maybe not. Take this less than 20 second, one question survey to express your vote on whether you think home prices will be higher or lower a year from now





Oops I forgot the jokes …





  1. Three economists went target shooting. The first missed by a meter to the right, the second missed by a meter to the left and the third exclaimed “we got it”.

  2. Economists were invented to make weather forecasters and astrologers look good.

  3. An economist is a trained professional paid to guess wrong about the economy.

  4. An economist will know tomorrow why the things she or he predicted yesterday didn’t happen.

  5. Economic forecasting is like driving a car blindfolded and getting instruction from a person looking out the rear window.

  6. Economics is the only field in which two people can share a Nobel Prize for saying the complete opposite.

  7. For every economist, there exists an equal and opposite economist.

  8. Economists have predicted six of the last two recessions.

  9. There are two classes of forecasters: those who don’t know and those who don’t know they don’t know (J.K. Galbraith).





I think you see where I’m going with this and I know what you’re saying. “…yeah George, but you’re one of those real estate brokers and you guys always belch in unicorn rainbows….where are your facts to counter what the learned Mark Zandi purports?…” That’s a fair question and let me first say, in no particular order…

Markets always correct. This hot real estate market will too, and the next one, and the next one.



However, I have observed that over the long term, if you bought a home in the South Bay area of Los Angeles, especially in the Beach Cities (Manhattan Beach, Hermosa Beach, Redondo Beach, Torrance) and Palos Verdes at any peak in the market during the last multiple decades, if you held on long enough, around 10-12 years generally, you made money. You made money. Let me repeat that… You made money!



“Real estate is all local” What I mean by that how the real estate market behaves in one region, isn’t what will happen in another region. Hence, joke #1 . Here are the facts. The following charts objectively tell the truth about what is occurring in the real estate market covered by the Central Regional Multiple Listing Service. I have a map for the areas covered by this system at the bottom of this blog post. What they will show is a market that is massively undersupplied and experiences massively high demand.





Low Supply + High Demand = ???????????????????





I think we all know enough about economics to answer that question. Feel welcome to contact me through this website by using the “Contact Us” tab at the top right of your screen.




Let’s take a look at the absorption rate. How strong is DEMAND according the facts as measured by the number of months of unsold inventory in the last 13 years or so…

And what of supply, one of the metrics this economist at Moody’s keys in on? Do you see an increase in inventory for the areas of California covered by CRMLS?

So now we know what the supply / demand facts are. What are effects on the market from these forces of supply and demand?… One effect is how much or if properties, in general, are selling over list price. Are they still?…

And finally what of price itself? …

But I did say “real estate is all local”, right? Maybe you live in the Tree Section of Manhattan Beach, or in the Lunada Bay area of Palos Verdes homes. What are the above metrics doing in your neighborhood? Is there a way to find out? The answer is yes. There are a couple of ways. You can either go to this real estate research site or you can use the “Contact Us” link at the top right of this page to let me know your name, email, cell, and your home address (your information will NEVER be sold or shared with anyone at any time).




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